Light & Wonder is the latest iGaming player to ring alarm bells over the impact of geopolitical uncertainty for the gambling sector.
The slot developer has estimated that they will feel a $30m (£22m) impact from ‘external factors outside our control’, namely, US President Donald Trump’s decision to continue to levy trade tariffs on countries around the world and ongoing changes to remote gaming tax in the UK.
As a result of these uncertainties, Light and Wonder has forecast single-digit EBITDA growth in 2026.
On the UK tax changes, which have already seen remote gaming duty increase from 21% to 40%, Matt Wilson, Light & Wonder’s President and Chief Executive Officer, reassured investors that the company is seeking to manage the impact with operators, but admitted that they will ‘begin to pressure our growth trajectory’.
A myriad of concerns
Like other global business sectors, gaming has been forced to confront the uncertainty presented by the often haphazard approach Trump has taken to implement various tariffs on imports from countries around the world.
Back in May 2025, Light & Wonder said that it was considering shifting part of its supply chain to Mexico in a bid to mitigate the economic impact of the tariffs by taking advantage of the USMCA, a free trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico.
Since then, these financial pressures have been heightened by changes in the UK tax framework, one of Light & Wonder’s key markets, and the wider economic impact of increasing tensions between the US, Israel and Iran.
The latter has caused the global price of oil to spike and also threatened to disrupt the gaming landscape in countries across Asia that are in close proximity to military action.
Despite these challenges, Wilson reported that gross gaming revenue remains resilient in the US through the first quarter of the year.
“GGR’s holding up nicely in the face of a lot of geopolitical risk,” he told investors.
“[There are] a number of different factors that could be hitting the US consumer, but they’re powering right through it at the moment. It’s something to watch closely. You look at the fee per day numbers, you look at the reported GGR, it looks like the market’s holding on very well.”
Light & Wonder reported a positive start to the year against this backdrop of uncertainty, as it recorded consolidated revenue growth of 2% year-over-year to $790m (£580m) and AEBITDA growth of 5% YoY to $327m (£240m).
Growth was primarily driven by Light & Wonder’s gaming segment, which recorded a 3% YoY improvement to $512m (£375.9m) and its iGaming division, which grew 18% YoY to $91m (£66.8m).
Is AI the answer?
Alongside mitigations for regulatory changes and geopolitical pressures, Light & Wonder has earmarked $20m (£14.7m) for investing in AI infrastructure and new market openings, as well as $10m (£7.4m) in legacy legal costs.
Wilson emphasised that the company is working with ‘urgency and discipline’ to advance its AI programme, which began in 2025.
He added: “We’ve got 43 initiatives and work streams that we’re working on across technology, content, SciPlay, and our operations. We think it can make a very meaningful impact on our organisation over time.”
Oliver Chow, Light & Wonder’s Chief Financial Officer, described the development of AI infrastructure as a ‘meaningful driver of efficiency and capability’, two pillars that will be key as the developer seeks to overcome the challenges presented by global uncertainties and regulatory changes.
