In his latest exclusive column for iGaming Expert, Consultant and former CEO of 888 Holdings Itai Pazner predicts a year of consolidation.
I don’t think anyone in this industry is walking into 2026 with rose-tinted glasses, but I’m not hearing many with an apocalyptic viewpoint either.
In 2026, I believe iGaming will really come of age. We have talked a lot about mature markets – this year you might finally see what mature markets actually look like. They will be more regulated, more taxed, more concentrated – but also, more predictable. The players aren’t going anywhere apart from some shifting to unlicensed operators. The question is simply who will still be around to serve them.
Here are my hopes, fears and predictions for the year ahead.
The UK: a three-year contraction
The UK story doesn’t really start in April when the latest tax changes bite. It starts when operators come back from Christmas and begin the painful optimisation process.
If the UK is a single-digit percentage of your group revenue, you will want to quit, but you won’t rush to exit. You’ll fade out. You’ll slash marketing, freeze product investment, keep the lights on and let the brand slowly shrink until it’s not worth the regulatory risk anymore. Then you’ll hand back the licence or divest what is left.
We still have a few-hundred licensed brands in the UK today. In three years, it will be dozens. This is not New York, where high licence fees and taxes filtered out smaller operators from day one. The UK started with 500 brands, built habits, databases and infrastructure – and only now is the economics changing. That’s why this will be a slow, grinding consolidation rather than a cliff edge.
My rough rule of thumb: you probably need £50-100m in UK turnover to operate profitably under the new reality. Below that, you simply can’t turn a profit. Margins that were 20-25% at the top end and 10-15% for smaller operators are being wiped out overnight.
The first thing to go will be marketing. Then headcount. Then product investment. The big operators will hoover up their share of voice because everyone else has gone quiet. But don’t mistake market share for health. If you were operating on a 20% EBITDA margin and suddenly you have 20% extra tax burden, you’re more or less at zero margin. Even the winners are significantly poorer without significant structural changes.
The UK is becoming France but with casino games: fewer operators, less competition, less innovation, a protected market structure and a political narrative of “responsible control”.
Governments will be happier. Operators will be smaller but more defensible.
The black market: time to fight back
Every time regulation squeezes too hard, the black market breathes easier. That much we know. Today, the black market is estimated at 8-10% of UK GGR. I would not be surprised to see that hit 15% or more.
When I talk about the “black market” it’s mainly crypto casinos that I’m talking about today. These crypto casinos can’t advertise on Sky Sports, but they don’t need to. While the regulated industry cuts bonuses to 10-15% and tightens RTPs, the black market can offer 40% bonuses and much better pricing. The heavier, more sophisticated players will notice.
Ironically, I think 2026 is also the year regulators finally get serious about enforcement. Crypto casinos are no longer marginal.
They are too big, too visible and too damaging to ignore. The first pressure point will be game suppliers. You cannot be regulated in the UK and quietly power unregulated casinos with the same content. The bigger suppliers will be forced to choose.
That alone will slow the black market’s growth because players don’t migrate for the brand – they migrate for the games.
IP blocking, criminal proceedings against owners, travel restrictions – governments have tools they haven’t fully used yet. In 2026, they will have to.
M&A: the quiet before the storm
We’ve had a surprisingly quiet couple of years for M&A. Flutter, Entain and others have been busy digesting previous deals, not starting new ones.
That will change in 2026. Once the dust settles from the latest tax shocks in the UK and regulatory uncertainty in the US, consolidation will return. This is still a fragmented industry outside the very top tier.
In the UK, buying very small brands will be complex and risky – every database comes with excluded players and regulatory exposure. But medium-sized brands with clean operations will be attractive targets, especially for buyers who believe the “France thesis”: a few operators, high taxes, low competition, stable profits.
In the US, the top tier – FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, Fanatics – isn’t going anywhere. Below them, I can see regional or second-tier operators combining casino and sportsbook strengths to stay relevant.
The US: the year of prediction markets
Until now, prediction markets have been noisy. 2026 is when the games truly begin.
DraftKings, FanDuel, Polymarket, Kalshi and Robinhood – we’re about to see half-a-dozen huge companies with deep pockets are fighting tooth and nail for market share.
In states without regulated sports betting, prediction markets will be massive. In regulated states, I’m less convinced. Exchanges appeal to a narrower segment of bettors. Betfair never dominated the UK for a reason. But there’s a bigger consequence: states are watching money flow out of their borders into prediction platforms they don’t tax. That alone will push more states to regulate. Not because they love gambling, but because they hate leaving money on the table.
Brazil: exploding the myth of the next gold rush
Brazil was the story of 2024–25. In 2026, it will be the reality check. If the rumoured 15% tax on deposits materialises, that’s effectively around 50% of NGR. That’s worse than the UK. The inevitable outcome is the same: five big operators, a long tail of struggling brands and a black market that never quite goes away.
Governments don’t mind this. It’s easier to monitor 10 operators than 200. But let’s stop pretending every new regulated market is a greenfield paradise. They all converge to the same structure eventually.
Africa: The Frontier With Teeth
A lot of people are talking about Africa. And yes, the growth is real. But this is not Latin America 2015.
Player values are different. Products are different. Regulations change overnight. Markets can triple taxes or shut down operators with no warning. Acquisitions are legally and operationally complex.
You don’t “roll out” Africa. You embed yourself in it – or you fail. It will attract brave operators with a higher appetite for risk, but it will never be a mass migration of the top global operators, like in Latin America.
My hope for 2026
I hope the big blows are behind us. The UK shock is known. The US landscape is clearer. Brazil will stabilise. Regulation will keep tightening, but not at the same seismic level. We will end 2026 with a smaller, more concentrated, less romantic industry – but one that is more stable, more defensible and might be more palatable to the general public and their politicians.
The players aren’t going anywhere. iGaming isn’t dying. It’s growing up.
