Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) has revealed that Dutch gambling has significantly missed its tax intake targets following a report that will ring alarm bells across Europe.
The KSA’s latest tax revenue analysis report detailed that, despite the gambling tax rate increasing year-on-year, the sector fell considerably short in terms of tax revenue targets.
Conducted by the Ministry of Finance and the Dutch gambling authority, the report expected that tax revenue would rise by €108m in 2025 and €216m in 2026, in line with industry tax rates increasing from 30.5% to 34.2% last year and again to 37.8% in 2026.
Actual increases compared to 2024 were only an estimated €2m in 2025 and a projected €57m in 2026. According to its arithmetic model, the report cited market influences, including new player protection rules and the rate increase itself, as reasons for the decrease in the tax base.
It underpins a sentiment warned by many in the industry that higher tax rates don’t automatically lead to significantly higher tax revenues. A dispute that has been prevalent across key European markets.
Isolating the tax hike from other factors, the authority reported that the effect of the higher rates was estimated at €83m for 2025 and €138m for 2026. However, other factors may have played a role in market dynamics over the past year.
These included new player protection rules with the introduction of monthly deposit limits, sponsorship and advertising bans, external factors such as the European football championship in 2024, as well as the rate increase itself, resulting in operators leaving the market in the interest of profitability.
With these developments taking place simultaneously, the KSA has found it difficult to measure exactly what impact the tax increase has had on the market and therefore believes the conclusions that can be drawn from the figures are limited.
Profits of state-owned operators, Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij, are expected to decrease as well due to higher costs, causing revenues for the state to decline further than the amounts mentioned.
Land-based operations, online platforms and channelisation each saw declines as well. Gambling hall visits and active branches fell, while gross gaming revenue for online providers continued to feel the impact of October 2024 player protection rules, although it’s not clear if the tax increase caused a further drop.
The KSA mentioned that the market’s channelisation rate also declined, but this trend had begun before the first tax increase was implemented, suggesting the decrease may not have been solely due to the new tax rate.
Since internal costs data from gambling operators weren’t collected, the authority said that the tax rate’s specific impact on profitability can’t be determined.
Contributions to charities were stable between 2024 (€597m) and 2025 (€608m), while contributions to sports had a 3.6% YoY drop during the same period (2024: €56m, 2025: €54m).
The report stated: “Because multiple developments occurred simultaneously in the market, it is difficult to draw conclusions regarding the effects of the tax increase.
“The objective of the tax increase was not achieved: the additional tax revenues turned out lower than expected because the tax base decreased, possibly partly as a result of the rate increase.”
iGaming Expert analysis: The KSA was adamant to state that it’s not possible to draw conclusions from the tax increase effects report since multiple factors have played a role throughout the period of evaluation.
However, what is clear is that the overall Dutch market, players and operators alike, is reacting strongly to the regulatory changes occurring.
As further regulatory changes lie ahead on the horizon, policymakers must be vigilant of a slowing of the market and a tougher climate for channlisation.
With the prohibition of advertising looming, the Dutch market sits on the precipice when it comes to ensuring it is still sustainable and can grow for stakeholders.
