Despite being a thriving market since its 2025 launch, Brazilian iGaming has endured significant political volatility.
If the latest speech of President Lula is any indication, this is set to reach a boiling point during the country’s upcoming election.
Lula is in a close race with the son of the former President, Flavio Bolsonaro. During a speech marking International Women’s Day, he provided clarity on what his approach to gambling would look like.
Interestingly, he singled out the ‘Jogo do Tigrinho’ – which in English translates to the ‘Little Tiger Game’, a specific type of slot game.
Lula specifically pinpointed the game as entering the homes of families and burdening players with debt through their cellphones.
During the speech, he outlined that he could prohibit specific game titles and ensure that they aren’t utilised by players.
Lula warned of the impact that the proliferation of gambling products in the iGaming space is having on the family ecosystem.
In a speech focused on the safety of women, he described gambling addiction as ‘another problem affecting Brazilian homes’.
He continued: “Although most addicts are men, the burden falls disproportionately on women. It’s money meant for food, rent, and children’s school that disappears on the cell phone screen. Casinos are prohibited in Brazil. It makes no sense to allow gambling games like ‘Jogos do Tigrinho’ (a Brazilian slang term for illegal gambling games) to enter homes, indebting families through their cell phones.
“We will work together, uniting the Government, Congress, and the Judiciary, to ensure that these digital casinos do not continue to indebt families and destroy homes.
Lula’s stance on gambling has toughened over the years. In 2024, he somewhat embraced gambling legislation as he underpinned a belief that prohibition was outdated.
Since then, with the legalisation of online gambling, he has become increasingly critical of the sector. The latest outburst will be of significant concern, given the election that is approaching.
Brazilian taxation has also been on an upward trajectory since the legalisation of gambling, following extensive negotiations in late 2025, which saw Congress further adjust the structure through Complementary Law No. 224. Lawmakers rejected the government’s initial proposal to double the gross gambling revenue (GGR) rate to 24% in 2026.
Instead, they adopted a phased tier-plan increasing the GGR tax by 1% annually, lifting the base rate from 12% to 15% by 2028.
Against that already recalibrated fiscal settlement, CIDE-Bets was widely interpreted by operators as an additional parallel levy layered on top of the agreed structure. In a decisive move, deputies removed the 15% surcharge from the final Chamber text before approving the bill.
The upcoming election is far from a poll on gambling, as the fate of the industry seems volatile, no matter if the polls sway right or left, with Bolsonaro also being fairly critical of the sector.
Bolsonaro has previously also outlined that he would go as far as to veto any potential gambling regulations, building on a wider conservative narrative.
Whilst there will be significant concerns around the trajectory of the gambling sector and its future, the stance of Lula still remains somewhat softer compared to Bolsonaro, but the upcoming election is set to accelerate a turbulent trajectory for the gambling industry in Brazil either way.
