In his latest piece for iGaming Expert, Šimon Vincze, Head of Sustainable & Safer Gambling at CasinoGuru, tackles a controversial subject as he examines what the gambling ecosystem would look like in the absence of the illicit sector.
There has been a new type of discussion centred around the positives, or rather, the legitimacy of illegal gambling. Perhaps controversial for some, but definitely interesting. It is a question of principle, law, and morality as well as cause and effect. One thing is sure: the illegal market keeps us on our toes and forces us to collaborate in tackling it.
It reminds me of my university years when I studied international politics. During a lecture on globalisation, someone asked whether it was possible to attain complete unity. The professor responded with cold confidence that it would only happen if there were a substantial external threat, likely from outer space, naturally, aliens.
Fast forward 15 years, and I am no longer so sure about that. You don’t need to be a superintelligent extraterrestrial to understand that people are easily manipulated. Thankfully, there is no propaganda claiming that illegal gambling is here to save us. Still, you must admit that some effects of its presence push the industry forward.
How would the gambling world look if it were not so easy to play at offshore operators? I find it exciting to think about it, but I dare not draw any conclusions. However, I will most probably not be writing this article, and we would know much less about the gambling experience that is exciting, but safe(r) at the same time.
Measuring the threat
After a brief philosophical warm-up, let’s examine the size of the hydra. As I have heard people refer to it recently, because each time you shut down one illegal channel, two new ones emerge. This is especially true in social media environments that are difficult for authorities to regulate but remain popular among younger generations.
Recent global meta-analyses of over 3500 reports show that nearly 18% of adolescents have gambled in the past 12 months. I believe the actual number of those exposed to gambling or gambling features is considerably higher.
Without considering different age groups, the American Gambling Association stated in their report that 48% of respondents had bet on illegal offers. This was in 2022, while a more recent estimate from Yield Sac claims that offshore gambling accounts for 74% of US gross gambling revenue. Additionally, a recent report in Sweden suggests that channelisation rates for online casinos have fallen to between 72% and 82%.
Casino Guru’s analyses of Google searches for specific casino brands reveal that more than half of these are directed towards illegal operators in the Netherlands. Our data shows a rise in such searches following the introduction of deposit limits in October 2024. Other countries are not performing well either, with around 20% of illegal searches in the United Kingdom and Sweden, and nearly a third in Spain.
Can’t hold all these limes
These figures are uncertain. The issue with such statistics is that they do not show the whole picture, as each viewpoint considers the problem from a different angle and relies heavily on estimation. Since it’s impossible to measure illegal gambling activity precisely, it’s useful to consider various perspectives and assess the matter through their combined insights.
There are several reasons why and how people end up engaging with or playing at illegal operators. It’s common to hear that regulatory restrictions push people towards the unlicensed market, but there is also a range of other reasons that attract them. Such examples include game selection, more attractive bonuses, or even loyalty programmes. Conversely, friction with KYC, restrictions on spending or experience, and self-exclusion might push players outside the licensed market, while the lack of motivation or inability to identify illegal operators remains somewhere in the middle.
Illegal gambling is undoubtedly one of the most significant sustainability issues. Still, our industry has been failing in the fight against it, traditionally through the means of blocking and prohibiting it. It seems that players will always be able to find such opportunities or vice versa.
Perhaps it’s time to embrace the illegal market’s effect that is uniting us and search for ways to redirect individuals back to domestic, licensed offerings through education, motivation and nudges rather than restriction and enforcement.
