Stakeholders of the Swedish gambling industry are being urged to align on more evidence-led approaches to problem gambling, as new analysis highlights the complexity of risk profiles shaping player behaviour. Coordination across regulators, operators and public health bodies is seen as critical to defending Sweden’s stable problem gambling rates against emerging and existing liabilities.
The findings draw on a report commissioned by BOS, Sweden’s Online Gambling Trade Association, led by economist Ola Nevander of Makrologik.
Covering 25 years of data, Nevander’s research titled “The Development of Problem Gambling in Sweden” provides a long-term view of the development of problem gambling in Sweden, while challenging assumptions about the impact of market expansion, regulatory change and rising accessibility on addiction rates.
On prevalence, the report finds that problem gambling in Sweden has declined and stabilised over the past two decades, despite the liberalisation of the market and total gambling spend reaching approximately SEK 28bn (€2.8bn) as of 2024.
The share of problem gamblers has fallen from above 2% in the late 2000s to around 1.3% today — a statistically significant reduction at the population level. Of particular note is the post-2018 transition to a licensed online regime, which today hosts around 60 B2C operators.
Yet despite these structural shifts, Sweden has maintained a problem gambling rate of approximately 1.3%, positioning it below comparable Nordic markets, although cross-country comparisons remain subject to methodological differences.
Economist Nevander commented on the findings: “The result is a steady decline. It is a result that may be surprising, given the dynamic development of the gambling market during this period. Gambling advertising is more prevalent than before, the number of gambling products is far greater, and the games are available 24/7 on our mobile phones. Nevertheless, gambling addiction is decreasing.”
Crucially, the report challenges the narrative that increased supply, advertising and product innovation are primary drivers of problem gambling. Over the same period in which digital access became near-universal, product supply expanded significantly and marketing volumes peaked, the prevalence of problem gambling declined rather than increased.
Instead, the analysis points to a more complex interaction of behavioural and societal risk factors. Problem gambling is more closely linked to individual vulnerabilities — including mental health conditions such as depression and impulsivity, risky alcohol consumption, adverse life events and behavioural patterns such as loss-chasing. These dynamics indicate that harm is concentrated within specific at-risk groups, rather than evenly distributed across the wider population.
The report further highlights an ‘absolute decline’ in Swedish problem gamblers that has fallen by a figure of 57,000 since 2008, whilst post 2018, data on the broader category of ‘at-risk’ players has declined by 200,000.
Attention is instead drawn to the structural role of regulation. Sweden’s licensing system, introduced in 2019, enables duty-of-care obligations, self-exclusion tools and data-driven monitoring of player behaviour within the regulated market — mechanisms viewed as essential for early risk identification and intervention.
However, these safeguards are only effective within the licensed environment. Channelisation to regulated operators remains critical, while migration to unlicensed or offshore platforms weakens oversight and removes access to intervention tools. Evidence suggests that a significant proportion of self-excluded players continue to gamble via unlicensed sites, exposing a key vulnerability in the system.
BOS Secretary General Gustaf Hoffstedt said the findings point to the potential of technology and regulation to further reduce harm:“With the transformation from old anonymous gambling in the kiosk to today’s digital gaming products, we have not solved the problem of gambling addiction, but we seem to have chosen the right path.
Used correctly and responsibly, online gambling and AI mean that we have new tools to push problem gambling back to levels so low that we have probably never been there before. We are on the right track, but a lot of work remains.”
Ultimately, the report reinforces a central conclusion: problem gambling is not simply a function of market size or accessibility, but the result of an interaction between individual vulnerability, behavioural dynamics and institutional conditions. For Swedish stakeholders, the challenge is not to restrict the market outright, but to ensure regulation supports high channelisation, effective monitoring and targeted interventions for those most at risk.
In this context, Sweden is positioned as a case study in regulatory balance — where market liberalisation has coincided with stable or declining harm — though maintaining that equilibrium will require continued cooperation as new risks emerge.
