The FIFA World Cup is fast approaching, and as we head into the new year, betting operators around the world will be working to ensure they can maximise engagement from one of the biggest shows in sports.
Fifa projects that next year’s tournament, spread across the US, Mexico and Canada, will reach audiences of over 6 billion people. Meanwhile, Spotlight Sports Group suggests that 70% of fans across the UK, US and LatAm are planning to place a bet during the 2026 tournament.
As such, betting is expected to surpass the $35bn wagered on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
A recent SBC Webinar explored the challenges facing the industry leading up to the tournament, and we broke down three key lessons learnt.
Player-led engagement
Now more than ever, football is viewed largely through the lens of social media. Coupled with the globalisation of leagues like the Premier League and La Liga, industry experts noted that many ‘Gen Z’ fans are more interested in supporting players than teams.
As a result, operators must be ready to react to any storylines that emerge as the tournament progresses, especially around stars like Argentina’s Lionel Messi and Norway’s Erling Haaland, who will be competing in his first World Cup.
Malachy Rooney, Head of Football Strategy & Pricing at Flutter UK and Ireland, explained: “It’s [about] setting ourselves up to be able to preempt where we think there could be a narrative building and then actually react to it and give customers what they want,”
“Whether it’s in terms of pointing them to existing selections that we have across the different sportsbooks or being able to come up with manufactured one-off niche selections through some sort of specialist mechanics.”
Mark Langdon, Group Director for Spotlight Sports Group, also noted that this is where features such as bet builders can come to the fore as they can be pre-packaged and pegged to a specific headline or centred on a certain player.
Modelling complications
Some of the unique features of the 2026 World Cup also present significant challenges for oddsmakers.
For the first time, FIFA has expanded its flagship event to 48 nations, and there are a number of lower-ranked nations competing in the group stages that have never made it to the finals before.
In addition, some of the games are expected to be played in stifling conditions, meaning teams with an eye on progressing deeper into the tournament may be more likely rotate players, complicating the offering of individual player markets.
Rooney said: “From a modelling point of view, the more one-sided a game or the bigger the supremacy, the more challenging it is for us to be able to offer that scope of proposition that we might like.”
“No one really wants to bet on Spain at 1/100 against Haiti. They’ll look down to the derivative markets, and sometimes it’s just quite hard to know what price Spain should actually be, [such as] minus four or minus five, in one of these games. Or if England play in their first game and they name the strongest team, versus if they play [Panama] in their third game and rest players. It can have quite a dramatic effect.”
Unlike yearly competitions like the Premier League and Champions League, which are backed by years of data, Langdon predicted that there is more of a chance statistical model will struggle to accurately price games involving teams like Curacao, where data is less readily available.
As a result, there is an opportunity for bettors who are willing to put in research on these nations to “beat the model” and take advantage of odds that may not accurately reflect the action on the pitch.
“A lot of it during the tournament is going to be very much learning on the job from a trading perspective,” said Ifran Parvez, Director of Sports at Livescore.
“I think if we knew at the of the tournament, if we knew at the start what we were likely to know at the end, we’d probably price the first set of fixtures very differently. We don’t have that luxury, so it’s going to be literally that, learning on the job.“
In concession to the heat, FIFA has announced that all games will include a water break at the 22nd minute mark.
Although this may seem inconsequential for betting markets, Rooney notes that Flutter’s Betfair brand offers a 90 Minute Guarantee, meaning a player’s bet is paid out as a winner once the match reaches the 90th minute, even if the result changes in stoppage time.
However, said Rooney, the cost-benefit analysis of offering such a promotion is unable to take into account the increased stoppage time likely to be included within matches at this year’s tournament, increasing the likelihood of late goals that could change game outcomes.
Late nights and newcomers
With games being played across North and Central America, kickoff times are less than favourable for regions such as Europe and Asia, often taking place late at night or kicking off early in the morning.
Consequently, the panellists projected that there will be a shift towards pre-match activity as left fans are able to watch games live.
However, with such challenges also comes opportunity.
Given the later times, it is more likely that fans will be watching at home rather than in pub beer gardens or with friends, meaning they will have access to a second screen while watching.
Therefore, it’s the job of betting operators to win the battle for space on a player’s second screen to increase engagement.
Holding the tournament in the US also unlocks a brand new demographic of players based in the country who have never placed a bet on football before.
While this is an exciting opportunity for company’s like Flutter, who will be seeking to drive engagement though its US sportsbook FanDuel, which is expecting over 1.5 million new customers who have never placed a bet omn football before.
it also poses challenges when catering for players that are more accustomed to placing bets on the NFL or NBA.
Rooney explained: “It’s just getting them up to speed with what it actually means to place a bet relative to maybe the NFL or NBA that they’re much more familiar with. [We need to try] bridge that gap because the worst case scenario is you have customers doing something and expecting an outcome and then seeing that their bet is either settled differently or they placed a bet on something they thought was something else.”
“[It’s about] trying to strike that balance between giving them the tools they need to understand it without saturating it for the more experienced betters who don’t really want to see a lot of additional information when they’re already familiar. So it’s pretty unique challenge.”
